In
the 2008 presidential election, Morgan Tsvangirai beat Robert Mugabe. If it
wasn’t for the requirement for the winning candidate to have an absolute
majority, Morgan Tsvangirai would be the president of the republic of Zimbabwe
right now. Do we perhaps curse that piece of legislation that denied him a
chance to get to state house or do we celebrate it? A lot of people are of the
opinion that the absolute majority requirement did us a huge favour as a lot of
Morgan Tsvangirai weaknesses have been exposed since then and his lack of
discipline when it comes to women is the least of Morgan Tsvangirai and his
supporters' worries. Elections are due this year and the question on many people’s lips
is; are we headed for another GNU?
I don’t think we are headed for
another Government of National Unity: Robert Gabriel Mugabe of ZANU-PF has got
the most realistic chances of winning the 2013 presidential elections. My
preferred candidate is Welshman Ncube of the MDC, but I feel now is not his
time, mainly because voting patterns are still along tribal lines in Zimbabwe
and Zimbabweans still vote for their ‘heroes’ instead of voting for the right
candidate for the good of the country. Welshman Ncube will get his moment in
the sun, but not now. Morgan Tsvangirai is sure he will topple Robert Mugabe
from the presidency and no matter how unpalatable the truth is; he will fail
dismally and here is why:
·
When
Simba Makoni announced his intention to
run for presidency, Morgan Tsvangirai was sharply critical of him, saying that
Makoni had "been part of the establishment for the last 30 years" and
therefore shared responsibility with Mugabe for Zimbabwe's situation. The same
can be used against Morgan Tsvangirai himself; he has been part of government
for the past five years and therefore responsible for what has happened to our
country within the past five years. The GNU has been a curse to Morgan
Tsvangirai as his presence in government has stripped him of the magical aura
that many thought he would take with him to cabinet and somehow miraculously
solve our myriad of problems. Instead, his presence in government has just
shown the Zimbabwean people that his appetite for looting and self-enrichment
is the same if not bigger than that of the ZANU-PF crowd. A lot of us are now
sure that voting for Morgan Tsvangirai will be a change of government in name
only: Giving a different set of thieves a chance to steal.
·
In Zimbabwe takes
back its land Joseph Hanlon, Jeanette Manjengwa and Teresa Smart
conclude: “In the biggest land reform in Africa, 6,000 white farmers have been
replaced by 245,000 Zimbabwean farmers. These are primarily ordinary poor
people who have become more productive farmers. The change was inevitably
disruptive at first, but production is increasing rapidly. Agricultural
production is now returning to the 1990s level, and resettled farmers already
grow 40% of the country’s tobacco and 49% of its maize. (page 209). The book is
obviously not balanced, but there are some truths in it. The New York Times,
The Guardian UK amongst other publications have written positively about the
land reform. The issue of the land reform was one of the main reasons why there
was so much negativity about Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF. Now, if there is no
consensus that the land reform was a bad thing, what chances does Morgan
Tsvangirai have in a presidential election: Outside of the protest vote against
Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai does not have a support base that believes in
what he stands for; if he stands for anything at all.
·
On
2 May 2008 Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announced that Tsvangirai
won 47.9%, Mugabe won 43.2% and Simba Makoni 8.3% thereby necessitating a run-off, which was
held on 27 June 2008. 47.9% was a pathetic share of the vote for Morgan
Tsvangirai considering the ‘overwhelming’ support the man had. Supermarket
shelves were empty, there was hyperinflation and there was a general onslaught
on the person of Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF from local and international media:
If Morgan Tsvangirai failed to get 51% of the vote under those conditions,
thinking he can do so when Zimbabwe has more or less stabilized is delusional.
The fact that Simba Makoni managed to get 8.3% of the vote shows us that the
people were craving for a better alternative to Robert Mugabe and Morgan
Tsvangirai. And the 2013 presidential elections have Welshman Ncube; who will
put to rest the scramble for the Matabeleland vote and has a wider support base
than Simba Makoni and the many voters who are going to vote for Welshman Ncube
will not come from ZANU-PF, but from MDC-T and that spells doom for Morgan Tsvangirai.
We hope that Morgan Tsvangirai will
respect his party’s constitution and step down from the party’s presidency
after he loses the forthcoming presidential elections; he has already served
more than two terms. With a more credible leadership the MDC-T will then become
a much needed opposition alongside Welshman Ncube’s MDC and then maybe we can
talk of dislodging ZANU-PF from power. But as things stand, Robert Mugabe will
cruise to victory and we have ourselves to blame as we wasted more than a decade
of our lives backing an obviously self-serving Morgan Tsvangirai.
This article originally published here: http://www.misazim.com/beyond.
Twitter:
@MgciniNyoni - Email: mgcininyoni@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment