Implications of opposition snub of by-elections

MDC, like MDC-T has said they will not take part in by-elections proclaimed by the president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe for June 10 2015. They are calling for electoral reforms before they can take part in any election.

Some of the reforms demanded by the opposition are:

·         Production of a new voters’ roll

·         Recruitment of new impartial staff at the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission

·         The opening of the public media to opposition political parties.

Is the Zimbabwean opposition likely to get these reforms in place before the 2018 elections? That’s very unlikely. So a crucial question has to be asked: Does the protest by the opposition serve any purpose?

We all protest on a daily basis for a variety of reasons. We are reasonable in our protest: We consider what is at stake. We also consider what we will do if the person/institution we are protesting against calls our bluff and refuses to budge. An apt example: When feeling naughty and not in hurry one can decide to protest against traffic police by parking by the side of the road, switching off engine and taking out a novel to read until the issue of an illegal spot fine is resolved. But in this kind of protest, not much is at stake: You are not rushing to an important meeting and if the police officers call your bluff, you can always laugh about it and give them a negotiated bribe.

The by-election boycott by the opposition does not make sense because too much is at stake and the institution they are protesting against will obviously call their bluff; the by-elections will happen without reforms, without the opposition and a lot would have been lost:

The parliamentary seats likely to be lost to ZANU-PF are:

1.      Harare East  

2.      Kambuzuma

3.      Kuwadzana

4.      Glen View South

5.      Luveve

6.      Dzivarasekwa

7.      Pelandaba-Mpopoma

8.      Highfield West

9.      Pumula

10.  Lobengula

11.  Mbizo

12.  Makokoba

13.  Dangamvura-Chikanga

14.  Tsholotsho North

With the exception of Tsholotsho North, this is crucial urban territory that traditionally belongs to the opposition and they have put it on the line because of a meaningless protest: I say the protest is meaningless because it will achieve nothing whilst relinquishing political ground that will never be regained. So I need educating here: Why is the opposition giving up these seats in protest over electoral reforms that will not happen? And the absence of these reforms will not prevent them from winning these particular seats?

ZANU-PF might be clueless when it comes to fixing the economy, but they know how to consolidate power: Once they have won these crucial urban seats, they will make resources available to their MPs and the electorate will consider giving ZANU-PF benefit of the doubt come 2018. We haven’t really seen or felt the presence of our urban MPs, have we? We will see the ZANU-PF MPs in these urban constituencies the opposition is willing to throw away.

Doesn’t common sense dictate that if protest action is unlikely to yield any results, the best move would be to abandon that form of protest action? Did grown men have meetings that resulted agreements that can be best be described as nonsense?

The Zimbabwean opposition has decided to betray the masses and they will be recorded in history as a bunch of losers who succeed in denying Zimbabweans an opportunity of achieving democracy.

Elections will produce outright winner

In the 2008 presidential election, Morgan Tsvangirai beat Robert Mugabe. If it wasn’t for the requirement for the winning candidate to have an absolute majority, Morgan Tsvangirai would be the president of the republic of Zimbabwe right now. Do we perhaps curse that piece of legislation that denied him a chance to get to state house or do we celebrate it? A lot of people are of the opinion that the absolute majority requirement did us a huge favour as a lot of Morgan Tsvangirai weaknesses have been exposed since then and his lack of discipline when it comes to women is the least of Morgan Tsvangirai and his supporters' worries. Elections are due this year and the question on many people’s lips is; are we headed for another GNU?

            I don’t think we are headed for another Government of National Unity: Robert Gabriel Mugabe of ZANU-PF has got the most realistic chances of winning the 2013 presidential elections. My preferred candidate is Welshman Ncube of the MDC, but I feel now is not his time, mainly because voting patterns are still along tribal lines in Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans still vote for their ‘heroes’ instead of voting for the right candidate for the good of the country. Welshman Ncube will get his moment in the sun, but not now. Morgan Tsvangirai is sure he will topple Robert Mugabe from the presidency and no matter how unpalatable the truth is; he will fail dismally and here is why:

·         When Simba Makoni  announced his intention to run for presidency, Morgan Tsvangirai was sharply critical of him, saying that Makoni had "been part of the establishment for the last 30 years" and therefore shared responsibility with Mugabe for Zimbabwe's situation. The same can be used against Morgan Tsvangirai himself; he has been part of government for the past five years and therefore responsible for what has happened to our country within the past five years. The GNU has been a curse to Morgan Tsvangirai as his presence in government has stripped him of the magical aura that many thought he would take with him to cabinet and somehow miraculously solve our myriad of problems. Instead, his presence in government has just shown the Zimbabwean people that his appetite for looting and self-enrichment is the same if not bigger than that of the ZANU-PF crowd. A lot of us are now sure that voting for Morgan Tsvangirai will be a change of government in name only: Giving a different set of thieves a chance to steal.

·         In Zimbabwe takes back its land Joseph Hanlon, Jeanette Manjengwa and Teresa Smart conclude: “In the biggest land reform in Africa, 6,000 white farmers have been replaced by 245,000 Zimbabwean farmers. These are primarily ordinary poor people who have become more productive farmers. The change was inevitably disruptive at first, but production is increasing rapidly. Agricultural production is now returning to the 1990s level, and resettled farmers already grow 40% of the country’s tobacco and 49% of its maize. (page 209). The book is obviously not balanced, but there are some truths in it. The New York Times, The Guardian UK amongst other publications have written positively about the land reform. The issue of the land reform was one of the main reasons why there was so much negativity about Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF. Now, if there is no consensus that the land reform was a bad thing, what chances does Morgan Tsvangirai have in a presidential election: Outside of the protest vote against Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai does not have a support base that believes in what he stands for; if he stands for anything at all.

·         On 2 May 2008 Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announced that Tsvangirai won 47.9%, Mugabe won 43.2% and Simba Makoni 8.3% thereby necessitating a run-off, which was held on 27 June 2008. 47.9% was a pathetic share of the vote for Morgan Tsvangirai considering the ‘overwhelming’ support the man had. Supermarket shelves were empty, there was hyperinflation and there was a general onslaught on the person of Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF from local and international media: If Morgan Tsvangirai failed to get 51% of the vote under those conditions, thinking he can do so when Zimbabwe has more or less stabilized is delusional. The fact that Simba Makoni managed to get 8.3% of the vote shows us that the people were craving for a better alternative to Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai. And the 2013 presidential elections have Welshman Ncube; who will put to rest the scramble for the Matabeleland vote and has a wider support base than Simba Makoni and the many voters who are going to vote for Welshman Ncube will not come from ZANU-PF, but from MDC-T and that spells doom for Morgan Tsvangirai.

We hope that Morgan Tsvangirai will respect his party’s constitution and step down from the party’s presidency after he loses the forthcoming presidential elections; he has already served more than two terms. With a more credible leadership the MDC-T will then become a much needed opposition alongside Welshman Ncube’s MDC and then maybe we can talk of dislodging ZANU-PF from power. But as things stand, Robert Mugabe will cruise to victory and we have ourselves to blame as we wasted more than a decade of our lives backing an obviously self-serving Morgan Tsvangirai.

This article originally published here: http://www.misazim.com/beyond.pdf

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